Last year we had few amazing trades in sugar. I want to pay your attention to 5-year cycles. In most cases, sugar futures follow it very well. So, based on a cycle study, a new 5-year bull cycle has started last year. But will it work this time and when can we buy? Let’s find out

Sugar consumption statistics and official data

The global consumption of sugar amounted to 172.6 in 2018/2019, and is projected to increase to about 177.8 million metric tons by the end of 2021. It is a clear sign of growing demand. But better agricultural technology, among other reasons, makes sugar cheaper and more widely available than ever.

In 2018/2019, about 188.25 million metric tons of sugar was produced worldwide, up from 164.7 million metric tons of sugar in 2015/2016. India consumes the most sugar of any country, followed by the European Union and China. 

It’s important to analyze the added sugars market to understand the 5-year perspective for sugar. The leading sources of added sugars in the US diet are sugar-sweetened beverages and desserts and sweet snacks. Examples of desserts and sweet snacks are cookies, brownies, cakes, pies, ice cream, frozen dairy desserts, doughnuts, sweet rolls, and pastries.

Added sugars consumption in children and young adults

  • In 2017–2018, the average daily intake of added sugars was 17 teaspoons for children and young adults aged 2 to 19 years.
    • By sex, the average intake was 18 teaspoons for boys and 15 teaspoons for girls.
    • By age and race/ethnicity:
      • Among 2- to 5-year-olds, the average intake was 13 teaspoons for non-Hispanic Black children, 12 teaspoons for non-Hispanic White children, 11 teaspoons for Hispanic children, and 7 teaspoons for non-Hispanic Asian children.
      • Among 6- to 11-year-olds, the average intake was 19 teaspoons for non-Hispanic Black children, 18 teaspoons for non-Hispanic White children, 16 teaspoons for Hispanic children, and 12 teaspoons for non-Hispanic Asian children.
      • Among 12- to 19-year-olds, the average intake was 20 teaspoons for non-Hispanic Black young people, 20 teaspoons for non-Hispanic White young people, 15 teaspoons for Hispanic young people and 14 teaspoons for non-Hispanic Asian young people.

Added sugars consumption in adults

  • In 2017–2018, the average intake of added sugars was 17 teaspoons for adults aged 20 and older.
    • By sex, the average intake was 19 teaspoons for men and 15 teaspoons for women.
    • By race/ethnicity, the average intake of added sugars was 19 teaspoons for non-Hispanic Black adults, 17 teaspoons for non-Hispanic White adults, 16 teaspoons for Hispanic adults, and 10 teaspoons for non-Hispanic Asian adults.
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Sugar futures price forecast

With all that in mind, let’s have a look at the charts. As I mentioned above, sugar futures started a new 5-year bull cycle last year. The current setup is mixed. Cycles are turning to the downside. Seasonal is neutral, as well as the commitment of trader reports. Both net positions and commercials index gives no signal. It seems like they are bearish, but we need extremes in short positions. Big positions (without creating extremes) are mostly related to normal supply and demand. So, it’s not what we are looking for. 

Also, we have Ultimate Oscillator bearish divergence. If the commitment of traders report generates a sell signal in the coming weeks, we can expect a pullback in this market. But it’s not here and not yet. There are other commodities with strong setups and ready to start moving.

Sugar Price Forecast 2021 – 2025. Research, Statistics, Data. by Inna Rosputnia

Wishing you a great week!

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