30.05.2025 US Tariffs Back in Focus: What Traders and Investors Should Watch This Week

Global equity markets are holding up well despite renewed uncertainty around U.S. tariffs. A recent appeals court ruling temporarily restored President Trump’s import tariffs after they were initially blocked by a lower court. These include the 10% baseline tariff on U.S. imports, along with specific “reciprocal” and “fentanyl” tariffs.

The legal battle now heads to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. For now, these tariffs will remain active throughout the appeals process. President Trump has also signaled readiness to escalate the case to the Supreme Court if necessary.

While some analysts suggest the court proceedings may not drastically alter U.S. trade policy—given the administration’s other legal tools such as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act—this legal tug-of-war adds yet another layer of complexity for investors and businesses navigating global markets.

What’s Next for Trade Policy?

The unsettled legal backdrop leaves open questions about future trade negotiations. Many market watchers anticipate a negotiated outcome that lands on a uniform 10% import tariff, with the more aggressive reciprocal measures ultimately scaled back.

For now, markets appear to be pricing in this likely scenario, keeping major indexes on relatively stable footing despite headlines from Washington.

Key Economic Events to Watch Next Week

Investors will be closely monitoring upcoming economic data for signs of how U.S. trade policies are impacting business conditions and consumer sentiment:

• Friday: May Employment Report — Unemployment trends will be in sharp focus, as steady jobless claims mask concerns about slowing hiring.

• Monday: ISM Manufacturing Index — A key gauge of industrial activity under trade pressures.

• Additional Data Releases:

  • Monday: Construction Spending

  • Tuesday: Factory Orders

  • Wednesday: ADP Employment Report, ISM Services Index

  • Friday: Consumer Credit

With the Q1 earnings season winding down, corporate reports are lighter. However, notable earnings to watch include:

• Monday: Campbell’s

• Tuesday: CrowdStrike*, Dollar General, Hewlett Packard

• Wednesday: Dollar Tree

• Thursday: Broadcom*, Toro

Washington headlines will likely continue driving broader market sentiment as trade and legal developments unfold.

Automated Trading System: Weekly Performance Update

Our proprietary automated trading system delivered another dynamic week of performance in S&P 500 futures (ES). Here’s a snapshot of this week’s trades:

Despite headline-driven volatility, the system remains highly adaptive—capitalizing on both bullish and bearish market moves.

As always, our focus is on disciplined risk management and consistent performance, even in uncertain market environments.

Wishing you a great week!