Covid has largely taken a back seat on markets expected to be fully open this summer. The situation is not as bright in some other parts of the world but for now, investors don’t seem overly concerned. Most Western countries are on a similarly positive track as the U.S., but as we are learning, bringing the global economy back online is a lot more complicated than shutting it down.

Fundamental analysis

Getting both products and workers where they are needed continues to be a massive challenge and one of the results has been a wave of higher prices. The Federal Reserve expects these disruptions to start easing later this year. However, there are a few supply shortages that can’t be solved quickly and will likely linger into 2022, such as computer chips and lumber.

Meaning the higher prices and shortages in those items can and is spilling over into other channels. The mere “perception” of inflation may be driving price spikes as well.

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Some economists have been pointing to commodity prices which they believe are partially roaring higher because investors are putting money into them as an inflation hedge and creating somewhat a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is a pattern definitely seen in Treasuries this year with yields on the benchmark 10-year waxing and waning in step with inflation headlines. Likewise, the “perception” of a high inflationary environment along with a more hawkish Federal Reserve could also spur analysts to start slashing earnings expectations, in turn pushing more stock investors to the sidelines.

Regional manufacturing indexes this week added to the inflation worries with the prices paid components in the Philadelphia survey hitting levels not seen since the 80s while New York’s hit all-time highs. At the same time, both surveys reflected a slowdown in manufacturing activity which is thought to be the result of supply chain bottlenecks. The declines were not due to a slowdown in demand as unfilled orders spiked in both regions.

Data today includes Flash PMI for May and Existing Home Sales. Looking a little further out, key reports that inflation watchers have on their radar include April PCE Prices due out next Friday, which is considered the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge. Also, the first week of June will bring ISM inflation gauges for both the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the May Employment Report.

Technical analysis

eur forecast 2021 may 21

EUR futures (6e) ma50 on the 4h chart held. The price action is neutral now. If the price finally breaks the 1.225 resistance, bulls will target 1.2310 and 1.234 in extension. On the other hand, if the ma100 on the 4h chart breaks, look for the ma200 on 4h and daily ma50.

The range between mentioned levels is no man’s land and difficult to trade.

What Is Happening With Economy And What Does It Mean For EUR? by Inna Rosputnia

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