As we expected corn finally rallied. It almost hit our target. And taking into account impulsive move, I think it makes perfect sense to book profits (at least partially). I believe we can see a pullback. It is difficult to say the range now. Possibly it will retest 324. We have to watch the daily chart and look for the formation of lower high or other setups + oversold oscillator (I use Williams %R 4 close for impulsive moves). We still have room up based on COT reports and I am still looking to allocate longs to managed accounts.
Wheat rallied as well. I am waiting for a new buy signal in this market also. It can be a daily resistance breakout, the formation of a higher low, or divergence (I use RSI or OBV). The COT report is bullish for wheat.
Currencies are still flat. I think a breakout is about to happen. The market is tricky and we can see a false breakout and then real trend. To avoid traps watch volumes before taking a trade. The only potential trade I see in currencies is GBP. Buyers have passed sellers zone near 1.2400 with significant volume. Now, this level is magnet. Once retested and rejected we can go long with tight sl. The potential target is near 1.2650.
As we expected SP500 rallied before July 4th. We still don’t have any swing signals. Based on cycles and seasonal indicators we can see a choppy trading coming week or two and formation of distribution with possible upthrust near 3200. If that happens, we can expect selloff. I will update market research subscribers about confirmations and entries.
Corn, Wheat, GBP and SP500 analysis by Inna Rosputnia
Wishing you a great week!
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