Sugar reached our target. This is it for now. Don’t touch sugar now. There is a seasonal tendency to rally around this time of the year. But we can’t rely only on seasonals. We need some setup. And we have one in Coffee. The COT report is bearish, the seasonal tendency is to the downside. We have a divergence in the 4h chart. So, where do we sell? I think breaking below Thursday’s low or formation of lower high would be good entries. 120 has been an important level for Coffee. It has to be tested again and it is our swing target.
Last week was hot for stock traders. As we discussed SP500 rallied a bit higher and was rejected. The Advance Decline Line did its job perfectly. I think the market can retest 3500 or higher and if rejected, we can sell for 3200. We still can see a big rally this year. Cycles and Fed Funds forecast indicate the beginning of an uptrend at the end of September. Besides, the stock market is usually strong before Elections. But for now, let’s focus on very short-term trades.
It has been a long time since my last analysis of the Swiss Franc. This market is set up for a decline. The COT report is very bearish, our valuation model shows CHF is way overvalued. Cycles and seasonal and Intermarket forecasts show a potential decline almost till the end of this year. Everything is very bearish. Sounds too good to be true. We have signs of Wyckoff distribution on a daily chart. The short-term oscillator is oversold. So, there is a possibility we will see a rally coming few sessions followed by the formation of a sell signal.
Wishing you a great week!
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