Bearish setup last week was not confirmed by price action. Besides, the Advanced Decline Line has broken to the upside as well as the price did. It makes SP500 bullish again. However, Cycles suggest weakness in the middle of June. So, I think we have to stick to intraday trading or short term positions if there will be any good setup. There is no clear direction for a swing trade and some big targets. Maybe later this month we will get some clue.
A few weeks ago we talked about the rally in live cattle. It moved nicely and I think its time for partial profit booking. Taking into account cycles, we can see the extension of this rise till the end of June with the final target near 110. However, it has been a good move, and taking some profits here makes sense.
I got a lot of questions this week about gold and most of them were like – “Will gold go to 2000?”. Well, the thing is its difficult to say now. There is no setup for a big rally. The only thing that indicates a rise is Cycles. That’s not enough to expect the rally to 2000. However, gold will choose direction depending on fundamentals. So, if something kicks in, we can talk about a rally to 2000. Talking about the short-term, we can see a rise till recent highs if last week’s low holds. If price breaks this huge conjunction area and holds above, we can expect a big upside move. But let’s take what market gives and follow price action and setups. That’s my plan for managed accounts as well. I don’t like guessing in trading.
The Australian dollar is near our target and I think it has some more room left to the upside if Wednesday’s low holds. Commercials didn’t start selling yet. I think the strength of the Australian economy is driving power now. Pay attention to the coming reports. It has been a good rally and good profits. Now we have to protect it by tighter stops loss or trailing.
Wishing you a great week!
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