Let me start my weekly market outlook with SP500. I am thinking to ignore cycles this time. It seems fundamentals will take control over this market. By ‘fundamentals’ I mean Intermarket relationships and Fed funds. Also, insider accumulation and advanced decline line confirm my guessing. So, till last week’s low hold, there is a big chance of highs retest. The only doubt is cycles forecast, but risk/reward is so sweet. So, I think it is worth trying.

SP500, AUD, JPY and Oil analysis for April 27 - May 01, 2020

I have been long AUD futures and booked good profits on managed accounts, but now thinking to reopen that position. Accumulation is strong enough in this market. If it breaks up, the price can reach 0.6800. We have clear stop loss here – just below last week’s low.

I didn’t trade JPY futures for a long time. Thinking its time to look for a trade in this market. Accumulation is strong enough to push the price to 0.9500 level. By the way, this time cycles are on the same side. So, look for and take buy signals.

Oh my gosh, I got a tone of questions about crude oil – Will it rise? Is it time to buy and hold?… Hmm, I have no idea. Here is why – COT report. Just have a look – commercials are selling and others buying? Almost every time we saw this, the market topped. It sounds too crazy to true this time. Can it really fall again? I think the best what we can do is to stay away. Let this market settle. It doesn’t have any good set up for trading. There is a lot of great opportunities in other markets. Let’s focus on it.

Wishing you a great week!

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