Last week was negative for USD despite positive Nonfarm Payrolls. All market participants know that the US labor market is strong. So data was mostly priced in. Job growth slowed but not as much as economists anticipated (128K vs. 85K), the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6% from 3.5% while average hourly earnings growth accelerated to 0.2% instead of the 0.3% forecast. Another situation happened with ISM manufacturing. Data was negative and pulled DXY down. Since nothing has changed in the EU, I expect EUR/USD to consolidate more the coming week. Range near 1.1100 should be good for buying with a 1.1215 target. It is too early to talk about the middle term direction.
Sugar moved slowly to the upside last week. Well, I have to say it mostly moves like a snail. My bias is still to the upside. Sugar is very cyclical, as you know. And I want to pay your attention to the five years cycle. It suggests we are near to long term uptrend in sugar. For now, let’s stick to the middle term perspective and our targets 13 and 13.4. If you don’t have long yet, look for a pullback and rejection to go long from lower levels. Also, there is a trendline going down, and the break above will be good entry too. So, whatever happens first.
Another interesting market is soybean oil. I noticed heavy shorts by commercial; besides, cycles are to the downside till December. However, I have to admit there is no sell signal yet. Technically on a daily chart, we have a trend line going up. So, a clear break below it will be our entry for 29.75 and 28.75. That’s my plan for managed accounts too.
Wishing you a great week!
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