Make US stock market great again! Sounds, good, isn’t it? Not much changed since my previous SP500 forecast. Still, we are targeting new highs near 3100 till the end of this year. So, buy the dips, if the market gives it. You know sometimes US indices rally without a pullback. Let’s see how it plays out this time. I know many traders expect a recession. But guys, not yet, not now. I would give a 50% chance it will happen in 2 years or so.
With stockmarket returning to uptrend, I believe upside in gold is limited. Investors have more confidence in the economy now and as we see trade war became old news and doesn’t influence money flow now as it was a few weeks ago. I expect gold will rally a bit to give a sell signal. Besides, pay attention to bearish divergence on the daily chart. Looks like we will see at least significant pullback.
All were waiting for NFP last week, but as often happens it didn’t have much influence on USD. The most important event for this pair is coming ECB meeting. Well, depending on their tome (and if 1.1100 resists) we can see new wave down to 1.0700 range. I don’t have position in EUR right now and likely will wait till ECB statement to jump into this market.
Cycles suggest we will see a bit of upmove in oil this week to form false break up. However, a lot depends on OPEC meeting this week. Technically, the oil should retest 50 levels. If this level break, the door to $ 44 will be open. Actually, that is the most interesting possibility.
Wishing you a great week!
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