Guys, we all were waiting for Jackson Hole meeting and what we got? – Yup, nothing. Only this neverending tariffs story saved the party we got nice profits at the end of the week. It’s really difficult to say what to expect next. Trump is unpredictable and all depends on his relationship with China. But if fundamentals remain unchanged, we will stick to cycles. It suggests the stock market will bottom this week and rally till the end of the year. Well, let’s see maybe we can get nice profits here. However, I think we should wait for a good signal, like Wyckoff accumulation, bullish divergence, etc. And if no surprises from Mr. President, I will be targeting new highs.
Even tariffs couldn’t get out a dollar from its range. We have to keep an eye on fundamentals too, but technically we should see decline soon. Lower high on daily chat will be a good signal to go short with 96 and 95 targets.
Autumn is coming… and a lot of trends in commodities. I expect to see a rally in wheat and sugar. As you know there is a strong correlation between dollar and sugar. So, if our dollar forecast correct, the opposite move should happen in dxy. I see two possible formations to confirm our forecast and start buying. First of all, it’s so-called ‘washing out pin bar’ or break of the trend line and its successful retest. Whatever happens first, I will buy with 0.13 and 0.15 targets.
Wishing you a great week!