A lot of expectations and talks about FOMC… And what did we get? – Nothing lol. FOMC statement had negative comments and was focused on low inflation, weaker consumer spending, and business investment. At the same time, Powell said solid fundamentals are supporting the economy as it continues on a healthy path. He dismissed talk of easing, described the Fed’s policy stance as “appropriate right now” and said, “we don’t see a strong case for moving in either direction.”
Any way lets ignore the noise. US economy is outperforming European
. So, still, our swing forecast for EUR/USD
is intact. Worth to mention the US labor market
. As you noticed from last week’s data it’s still healthy – the unemployment rate fell to a 49-year low, Nonfarm payrolls increased by 263K in April, up from 189K the previous month and the jobless rate dropped to 3.6%. Only wage growth rose less than expected, but it doesn’t change the fact that the labor market is healthy. So, fundamental analysis confirms my expectation of money flow to USD, but technical analysis says pullback is not done yet.
Last week we saw a nice looking run. The market has to test 1.13400 – 1.13900
before next leg down to 1.10600
. Only significant fundamental changes can bring EUR/USD to 1.10600 without a test of mentioned range. But for now, there are no such factors. Its worth to say that that way from cmp (current market price) to 1.13400 – 1.13900 will be confusing and choppy – lots of ups, downs and false breakouts on smaller time frames. So, intraday and short term traders should be careful. Swing sellers have to wait for rejection at mentioned above range. Also, I keep an eye on the Gold market
as I smell a big opportunity is coming there in a few weeks. My managed accounts
are ready to get in and profit ?