Oh, my SONO
.. I adore such trades – bought stocks to hold few weeks, but target was reached in a few days. So, congratulations to all trading signals
But today, I want to discuss gold. Price reached our target at 1184. Interesting spike happened on Friday. There were 2 fundamental factors to support gold up move. Powell speech was hawkish, but not so hawkish as investors expected. Based on this we could consider this spike as emotional move or so-called jerk reaction. But we had one more reason – CFO of Trump organization granted immunity. To be honest, I am very skeptic about possibility of Trump impeachment. If Weisselberg was ready to give any significant information against Trump, he would do so.. – secretly and without noise. This reminds me story about Hillary Clinton emails – a lot of talks and nothing else.
I see trade war a bit tricky now and I have feeling it’s about to fade. There is no sense in it for both US and China. But simply these countries are not ready to give up offically. So, I think very likely no new steps to escalate trade will be taken. If this happens and trade war will fade, money flow can really change and dollar will come back to where it belongs, as well as gold.
However, we are traders and we have to be unbiased. Price is the only thing that really matters, not our interpretation of fundamental factors.
Gold forms rising wedge. This is continuation pattern and we should expect one more leg down. We still have small room up to reach upper range of rising wedge. So, if price gets rejected in the range 1208 – 1216, I will go short for 1193. If breached, my final target will be 1140. But don’t hurry to short, we need at least 2 rejections in mentioned above zone. Also, keep in mind possibility of zig-zag move within wedge.
If no rejection at 1208 – 1216, get ready for break up. In this case rising wedge will be invalid. So, if price holds above 1216, I will go long for 1228 – 1233 and 1250 in extension. As there is no clear signal yet, watch price action.
Also pay special attention to monthly closing – under 1194 will indicate more pressure on gold in September, above it we be good signal for bulls.