Congratulations to all who followed my call and bought oil! What a great rally. But let’s analyse what was happening around all this time and what made me so angry…
A lot of people were afraid to buy oil. They heard on TV and other media, that Russia and Saudi Arabia want cheap oil + output increase. Really? Who told you that? Analysts? – Oh this ‘trusted’ people…
Each of them works for bank, hedge fund etc. So, please tell me, do you believe bank pays them salary for giving you free advises? Com’on, money doesn’t appear from air. If someone makes money, someone has to lose it. Yes, my dear, you are their victims, you are potential resource of their wealth. Sad, but true. Their task is to bring some information to you and manipulate your trading decisions. The best what you can do for yourself is to stop listening to these guys! Think outside the box!
When WTI was at $64 dollars a barrel, they were everywhere screaming to sell and telling fairy tales about correlation between high oil prices and inflation in Russia and Saudi Arabia. And in this moment they were buying! $10 rally in 2 weeks! Oil is heart and blood of economies in these countries. After big drop of oil prices last years they need to balance their budget. So, saying Russia or Saudi Arabia need cheap oil is the same, that saying they want suicide.
Oil always was and will be pawn in political games, sure. But remember, this is long-term bull market. In coming 3 – 5 years oil will hit all times high. Definitely, we will see a lot of ups and downs. But be realistic about when to short this market and what targets to expect.  
Now, when we are getting closer to pullback in oil, where are all ‘trusted’ people, screaming sell at bottom?

Wishing you a great week!

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